Stock Market Today, September 4, 2026: Nasdaq Futures Rise as Jobs Report Tests S&P 500 Rally

U.S. stocks are heading into Friday’s session with one number capable of quickly changing the market mood: the August jobs report.

Nasdaq futures were leading modest gains early September 4, while S&P 500 futures edged higher and Dow futures were nearly flat. The quiet start comes after Wall Street rallied sharply Thursday and pushed the S&P 500 back close to its record high.

Investors are now waiting to see whether the labor market gives the Federal Reserve more reason to hold interest rates steady or revives fears of another rate increase. Early U.S. futures showed:

• Dow futures: down about 0.07%
• S&P 500 futures: up about 0.06%
• Nasdaq 100 futures: up about 0.42%

The moves are small, but the setup is important because Friday’s government employment report arrives at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. According to a Reuters survey, economists expect:

• August nonfarm payrolls: +56,000
• July nonfarm payrolls: -23,000
• August unemployment rate: 4.1%
• July unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Expected annual wage growth: 3.0%
• July annual wage growth: 3.2%

The expected rebound would still point to a much slower labor market than investors were seeing earlier in the year. Economists described hiring conditions as a “slow hire, slow fire” environment, with businesses reluctant to add workers aggressively but layoffs still relatively contained.

That makes Friday’s report unusually important for stocks. A result near expectations could reinforce the view that the labor market is cooling without collapsing. A much stronger report could push Treasury yields higher and revive expectations that the Fed may need to tighten policy again.

A much weaker report could initially help rate-sensitive growth stocks by lowering rate expectations, although an unexpectedly severe jobs slowdown could also raise concerns about economic growth. The market is coming into the report with strong momentum after Thursday’s rally:

• Dow Jones: +1.18% to 53,686.11
• S&P 500: +1.06% to 7,747.71
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.40% to 26,584.06

The S&P 500 finished Thursday only around 0.7% below its record closing high, making Friday’s jobs report a potential test of whether buyers can push the index back toward fresh records.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped drive Thursday’s rally after saying he would be inclined to support keeping interest rates unchanged if incoming data confirms that inflation pressures are easing. Following those comments, market expectations for a September rate increase dropped to roughly 50%, from more than 63% a day earlier.

That shift matters for the S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq because higher interest rates and bond yields make future corporate earnings less valuable in today’s terms. Fast-growing technology companies are often among the most sensitive stocks when Treasury yields move sharply.

Read Next: Stock Market Today, September 3, 2026

Treasury yields have already pulled back from this week’s highs. Early Friday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.76%, after a global bond selloff earlier in the week pushed long-term borrowing costs sharply higher.

Investors will watch the bond market immediately after payrolls. A hotter jobs report could send yields higher as traders price in a greater chance of tighter Fed policy. A softer report could push yields lower if investors become more confident that the Fed can remain on hold.

Nvidia remains one of the most important stocks for the Nasdaq after gaining Thursday following its agreement to acquire developer platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Nvidia shares rose 1.8% in Thursday’s regular session, helping lift the broader group of large technology stocks.

Tesla is also in focus after its Cybercab rollout in Austin. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it is evaluating Tesla’s deployment of the steering-wheel-free vehicle and remains in contact with the company. Tesla shares were under some pressure in early trading after the Cybercab event, putting the regulatory and commercial rollout back in focus for investors.

Broadcom is another key name to watch. Shares fell 2.7% Thursday after its outlook failed to meet the extremely high expectations surrounding AI infrastructure spending. The decline came even as other technology and software stocks rallied, showing how demanding investors have become when valuing companies tied to the artificial intelligence boom.

For investors tracking the biggest individual moves from Thursday, Investozora’s stock movers coverage details the action in Tesla, Snowflake and Broadcom.

Oil is another risk hanging over Friday’s market.

Crude prices eased slightly early Friday but remained sharply higher for the week as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions kept fears about Middle East supply disruptions elevated:

• Brent crude: $95.05 a barrel, down 0.49%
• WTI crude: $90.66 a barrel, down 0.70%
• Brent weekly gain: about 6.5%
• WTI weekly gain: about 8.8%

Higher oil prices matter to stocks because they can feed inflation, raise transportation and production costs and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to justify easier policy.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key concern. Shipping traffic through the waterway has stayed well below recent averages, although Reuters reported that tanker flows have not collapsed. The route handled roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the current conflict began.

For Wall Street, the first reaction after 8:30 a.m. ET will likely come through Treasury yields and Fed expectations rather than the headline jobs number alone.

A stronger-than-expected combination of payroll growth, unemployment and wages could make investors more concerned that the economy remains strong enough for the Fed to raise rates again. That would generally be a tougher setup for richly valued technology and growth stocks.

A moderately weaker report could have the opposite effect by lowering Treasury yields and reducing the perceived need for another rate increase. But investors will also be careful not to treat every weak number as good news. If hiring falls sharply or unemployment unexpectedly rises, the focus could quickly shift from interest rates to recession and earnings risks.

That is why Friday’s report could produce a more complicated reaction than simply “good jobs equals good stocks” or “weak jobs equals higher stocks.”

The Fed’s September 15–16 meeting is approaching, but inflation remains the bigger policy question. Reuters noted that economists generally do not expect an ordinary August employment result by itself to determine the Fed decision. Next week’s consumer inflation report could be even more important.

Read Next: Stocks to Watch Today, September 3

For Friday, investors should watch five markets together: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, Treasury yields, Nvidia and other AI stocks, oil prices and Fed rate expectations.

The S&P 500 enters the session near record territory, the Nasdaq has regained momentum, and Treasury yields have eased. But the August jobs report now has the potential to decide whether that rally extends into the Labor Day weekend or whether interest-rate fears return to Wall Street.