Stock Market Today, September 3, 2026: Wall Street Holds Steady as Jobs Report Could Reset Fed Bets

Wall Street is holding close to recent highs Thursday as investors prepare for what could be the most important market event of the week: Friday’s August U.S. jobs report.

U.S. stock futures were little changed to slightly higher early September 3 after the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite all rebounded Wednesday. Investors are trying to decide whether the labor market is weakening enough to cool the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook without signaling a sharper economic slowdown.

The market picture early Thursday was relatively calm:

• S&P 500 futures: up about 0.1%
• Wednesday S&P 500 close: 7,666.60
• S&P 500 Wednesday change: +35.16 points, or +0.46%
• Dow Jones Wednesday close: 53,061.95
• Dow Wednesday change: +295.01 points, or +0.56%
• Nasdaq Composite Wednesday close: 26,217.83
• Nasdaq Wednesday change: +118.05 points, or +0.45%
• Russell 2000 Wednesday change: +1.1%
• 10-year Treasury yield Wednesday: 4.79%
• 2-year Treasury yield Wednesday: 4.39%
• 30-year Treasury yield Wednesday: 5.27%
• Brent crude Thursday: around $95 a barrel
• WTI crude Thursday: around $90 a barrel

Wednesday’s rebound ended a three-session losing streak for Wall Street. Nvidia rose 3.2%, Micron gained 2.4% and Qualcomm added 2%, helping chip stocks recover after investors had become more cautious about high valuations and rising bond yields. But Thursday’s attention is moving away from individual earnings and toward the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, September 4, according to the official BLS schedule. The report will include nonfarm payroll growth, unemployment, wage growth, labor-force participation and revisions to earlier months.

Economists surveyed by Reuters have expected roughly 58,000 jobs to have been added in August, with unemployment around 4.1%. Estimates can change before the release, making the actual BLS figures far more important than any forecast.

The report carries extra weight because July was weak. According to the BLS:

• July nonfarm payroll change: -23,000
• July unemployment rate: 4.1%
• July unemployed people: 6.9 million
• July labor-force participation rate: 61.4%
• July employment-population ratio: 58.9%

The July report also included large downward revisions to earlier job growth. May payroll growth was revised from 129,000 to 63,000, while June was revised from 57,000 to 20,000. Combined employment in those two months was 103,000 lower than previously reported. That weakness explains why Friday’s number matters so much.

Another soft report could strengthen the view that the U.S. labor market has lost momentum. But a surprisingly strong payroll number could push Treasury yields higher again and increase expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tight or raise rates.

Markets have recently moved sharply toward expecting another Fed increase. Reuters reported Thursday that traders were assigning roughly a 60% probability to a September rate hike, compared with about 40% one week earlier. Another Reuters market briefing put the probability near 67%, showing how quickly pricing has been moving as new information reaches markets.

The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for September 15–16, with the decision due September 16, according to the official Fed calendar.

That means Friday’s jobs report and the August Consumer Price Index report scheduled for September 11 are likely to be among the final major economic readings investors receive before the Fed decision.

Labor-market data released before Friday have already given traders reasons to be cautious. ADP reported that private employers added only 38,000 jobs in August, below expectations and down from a revised 46,000 in July. Education and health services provided much of the growth, while manufacturing employment declined.

The government’s JOLTS report also showed a labor market that is no longer running at the extremely tight levels seen earlier in the economic cycle.

According to the official JOLTS report:

• July job openings: 7.27 million
• Job openings rate: 4.4%
• Hires: 5.1 million
• Hires rate: 3.2%
• Total separations: 5.1 million
• Separations rate: 3.2%
• Quits: 3.1 million
• Quits rate: 1.9%
• Layoffs and discharges: 1.7 million
• Layoffs rate: 1.0%

Those numbers do not show a sudden collapse in hiring, but they do reinforce the idea that the labor market has cooled. Bond yields are another major pressure point for stocks.

Official Treasury rates showed the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.79% on September 2, unchanged from September 1 but well above 4.59% on August 28. The 30-year yield stood at 5.27%.

That move matters because higher Treasury yields make bonds more competitive with stocks and raise borrowing costs across the economy. High-growth technology companies can be particularly sensitive because investors value much of their expected profit far into the future.

Reuters reported this week that the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio had fallen to about 19.7 from 22.2 earlier in the year, but remained above its longer-term average. A renewed push toward a 5% 10-year Treasury yield could therefore become another test for expensive parts of the market.

Oil is adding another layer of uncertainty.

Brent crude remained close to $95 Thursday while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded near $90 as markets continued to watch the conflict involving the United States and Iran and the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Investors can follow the latest moves in oil prices today.

Reuters reported Brent around $95.07 a barrel and WTI near $90.51 during Thursday trading after both benchmarks had risen for three straight sessions.

High oil prices matter far beyond energy stocks. A sustained increase can raise transportation and production costs, lift inflation expectations and make it more difficult for the Fed to loosen monetary policy.

That is one reason investors are watching both oil and employment data at the same time. Technology stocks remain another major part of Thursday’s market story.

Broadcom said it now expects roughly $115 billion in AI chip revenue in fiscal 2027, up from an earlier forecast of more than $100 billion, and projected about $230 billion for 2028. But its shares initially fell after the company’s quarterly revenue outlook came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.

Snowflake shares, meanwhile, jumped more than 20% in premarket trading after its results, while Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell after its report. Investors looking beyond the indexes can see the major names moving before the session in today’s stocks to watch coverage. The bigger question, however, is whether strong AI spending can keep supporting technology shares if interest rates stay high.

Wednesday showed that investors were still willing to buy major chip names after pullbacks. Nvidia’s 3.2% rise was an important part of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebound. That followed a volatile start to September covered in Wednesday’s stocks to watch report and the September 1 market watchlist.

Some investors have also been reducing exposure to expensive technology shares and moving money toward fixed-income assets as bond yields rise. That broader shift is explored in the recent investor rotation analysis.

For Thursday, however, the market may remain hesitant to make a large move before Friday’s employment report.

A weaker jobs number could bring Treasury yields down if traders conclude the economy is slowing enough to reduce the need for higher rates. That could help growth and technology stocks, although an extremely weak number could also raise fears about economic growth.

A stronger jobs report could have the opposite effect. It may reassure investors about the economy, but it could also increase the chance of tighter Fed policy and push bond yields back toward recent highs.

Oil provides a second major risk. Any renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift crude prices again. Investors following that threat can compare Thursday’s moves with Wednesday’s oil market developments.

The most important figures for investors to watch now are:

• August payroll growth: due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET
• August unemployment rate: due Friday
• Average hourly earnings: due Friday
• Labor-force participation: due Friday
• 10-year Treasury yield: around the upper-4% range
• 30-year Treasury yield: above 5%
• Brent crude: near $95
• WTI crude: near $90
• September Fed meeting: September 15–16
• August CPI report: September 11

Wall Street enters September 3 in a better position than it did at the start of the week, but the next major move could depend less on Thursday’s trading and more on what the government says about jobs Friday morning.

With the S&P 500 still near record territory, Treasury yields elevated, oil near $95 and Fed expectations changing quickly, investors have several reasons to avoid making large assumptions before the data arrives.

For now, Wall Street is waiting.