Jobs Report Today, September 4, 2026: Payrolls Could Decide the Fed’s Next Move

The U.S. jobs report arrives Friday morning with Wall Street watching far more than one payroll number. The August employment data could quickly change expectations for the Federal Reserve, Treasury yields, stocks, mortgage rates, the dollar and gold as investors decide whether the labor market is still holding up or losing momentum.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, September 4. The official BLS schedule confirms the release time.

The report has not been released yet. Before the numbers arrive, economists surveyed by Reuters expect only a modest rebound after payrolls unexpectedly fell in July. The main numbers to watch are:

• Nonfarm payrolls forecast: about +56,000
• July payrolls: -23,000
• Unemployment rate forecast: 4.1%
• July unemployment rate: 4.1%
• Expected annual wage growth: about 3.0%
• July annual wage growth: 3.2%
• July average hourly earnings: $37.62
• July labor-force participation rate: 61.4%

The July report showed both payroll employment and unemployment changing little, but the headline job loss was another sign that hiring had weakened sharply. BLS also reported that average monthly payroll growth over the previous 12 months had slowed to only 34,000.

That makes today’s report important even if payroll growth lands close to expectations.

A gain near 56,000 would be better than July’s loss, but it would still represent a relatively soft pace of hiring. A much stronger result, especially alongside firm wages, could revive concerns that the labor market remains strong enough for the Federal Reserve to focus aggressively on inflation.

A much weaker result could instead strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged, unless it is so weak that investors begin worrying about economic growth. That tension is why the reaction may depend on the combination of payrolls, unemployment and wages rather than the headline payroll number alone.

The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for September 15–16, according to the Fed calendar. Policymakers left rates unchanged at their July meeting, though three participants preferred a quarter-point increase.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller complicated the outlook Thursday when he signaled that he could support holding rates steady if incoming inflation data confirms that price pressures are easing. His comments helped reduce market expectations for a September rate increase from roughly 63% to around 50%, according to Reuters.

That means today’s jobs report could move the odds again.

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Treasury yields may give investors the fastest signal after 8:30 a.m. A stronger payroll and wage reading would normally put upward pressure on shorter-term yields if traders increase expectations for higher Fed rates. A softer report could pull those yields lower by reducing expectations for further tightening.

Before the report, markets were already coming off a volatile week in bonds. Early Friday levels cited by Reuters included:

• 2-year Treasury yield: about 4.3381%
• 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.7620%
• U.S. dollar index: around 98.96
• Spot gold: around $4,474.78 an ounce
• December U.S. gold futures: around $4,521.40 an ounce

Stocks could respond in the opposite direction to yields. A moderately soft report may help equities if investors see it as reducing the chance of another Fed rate increase without signaling a major economic downturn. A surprisingly strong report could push Treasury yields higher and pressure expensive growth stocks, especially technology shares.

Investors following the broader stock market today should therefore watch the bond market alongside the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow after the release.

Mortgage rates are part of the same chain. Freddie Mac said the average U.S. mortgage rate increased again this week:

• 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.71%
• Previous week: 6.66%
• 15-year fixed mortgage: 6.04%
• Previous week: 5.98%

Those are the September 3 readings from the Freddie Mac survey.

Mortgage rates do not move directly with the Fed’s policy rate, but they are heavily influenced by Treasury yields and expectations for inflation, economic growth and future Fed policy. If today’s jobs report drives longer-term Treasury yields higher, mortgage borrowers could face more pressure. A sustained fall in yields would work in the opposite direction.

Gold is another important reaction trade. Gold rose sharply Thursday after Waller’s comments reduced rate-hike expectations and pulled the dollar and Treasury yields lower. A weak jobs report could reinforce that setup, while strong payrolls and wages could support yields and the dollar and create a tougher backdrop for bullion.

Readers tracking gold prices should therefore watch real-time changes in Treasury yields after the jobs numbers rather than payrolls alone.

The unemployment rate could be especially important today. Holding at 4.1% while payrolls recover would support the idea that the labor market is slowing without falling apart. A meaningful rise in unemployment combined with weak hiring would send a more worrying economic signal.

Wages matter for a different reason. The Fed is trying to determine whether inflation is moving sustainably toward its goal. Wage growth by itself does not determine inflation, but unusually strong wage gains can make labor-intensive services inflation harder to cool. Reuters’ roughly 3.0% year-over-year wage-growth forecast would represent further slowing from July’s 3.2%.

The next major test arrives quickly. U.S. producer-price data is scheduled for September 10 and the August Consumer Price Index for September 11, according to the BLS release calendar. Those inflation reports could ultimately carry even more weight for the September Fed decision if today’s employment numbers remain close to expectations.

Read Next: Stock Market Today, September 3, 2026: Wall Street Rallies Before Jobs Report

For investors, the simplest way to read today’s report is as a chain: jobs affect the unemployment and wage outlook; those numbers affect Fed expectations; Fed expectations move Treasury yields; and yields feed directly into stocks, mortgage rates, the dollar and gold.

The headline payroll number will attract the first reaction at 8:30 a.m. ET. But unemployment, wages and revisions to earlier months may determine whether that initial move lasts.

This article should be updated immediately after the BLS release with the actual payroll number, unemployment rate, wage growth, prior-month revisions and the first reaction in Treasury yields, stock futures, the dollar and gold.